Italy’s greenhouse gas emissions are expected to fall by about 1.5% in 2026 compared with 2025, while gross domestic product is expected to grow by 0.8%, according to an estimate by ISPRA, Italy’s public institute for environmental protection and research, released in October 2026.
The main reason is a 7.7% drop in coal use, in homes and services as well as in industry. Emissions are also expected to fall in energy production (-1.4%), heating (-1.2%) and, slightly, transport (-0.2%), thanks to less diesel on the roads. No significant changes are expected in agriculture and waste.
In the period analysed, renewable sources covered 42.8% of electricity demand, more than non-renewable sources (41.1%); the rest came from net imports. Electricity demand rose by 2.5%.
ISPRA stresses that these are quarterly estimates based on partial data, not final inventory figures. The institute describes the fall as a first signal that still needs to be confirmed.
